{"id":3277,"date":"2017-04-19T03:43:12","date_gmt":"2017-04-19T03:43:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/arabicfxadvisors.com\/english\/?p=3277"},"modified":"2017-04-19T03:43:12","modified_gmt":"2017-04-19T03:43:12","slug":"pound-bears-flee-deutsche-bank-sees-election-game-changer-18-april-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arabicfxadvisors.com\/english\/pound-bears-flee-deutsche-bank-sees-election-game-changer-18-april-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"Pound Bears Flee as Deutsche Bank Sees Election as Game-Changer &#8211; 18 April, 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>One of the pound\u2019s biggest bears just threw in the towel.<\/p>\n<p>Deutsche Bank AG, who in 2015 accurately predicted the pound would drop to a 31-year low the following year, is exiting all its bearish sterling trades after\u00a0U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May called for an early election. George Saravelos, the firm\u2019s global co-head of currency research, described the move as a \u201cgame changer,\u201d two months after he warned that the pound could fall to as low as $1.05 in what was one of the firm\u2019s \u201cstrongest views.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Sterling rose to its highest level this year after May\u2019s announcement in Downing Street that she was planning on calling elections for June 8, three years ahead of schedule.<\/p>\n<p>An early election \u201cis in our view a game-changer for both the U.K.\u2019s Brexit negotiations and sterling,\u201d Saravelos wrote. \u201cWe do not see the election as a mandate for hard Brexit. Instead, assuming current polling proves correct, it should result in a larger and more stable Conservative majority.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The pound extended gains soon after Deutsche Bank changed its call. It was trading 1.4 percent higher to $1.2741 as of 3 p.m. in London, the highest since Dec. 6. The currency fell to as low as $1.1841 last year, the weakest since 1985.<\/p>\n<p>Deutsche Bank stood out in 2015 with a call for the pound to decline to $1.27, and has been bearish on the currency for two years. The firm will \u201clook to revise our sterling forecasts in coming days,\u201d Saravelos wrote.<\/p>\n<p>Saravelos identified three reasons why early elections will boost the currency:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cIt makes the deadline to deliver a \u201cclean\u201d Brexit without a lengthy transitional arrangement by 2019 far less pressing given that no general election will be due the year after\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cIt will dilute the influence of MPs pushing for hard Brexit\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cIt strengthens the PM\u2019s overall negotiating stance which in recent weeks has clearly fallen in line with the European negotiating approach\u201d\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cThis will involve a settlement of the Brexit payments and other divorce aspects first, to be followed by a lengthy transitional period during which the final outcome of Brexit will emerge\u201d<\/li>\n<li>This sequenced approach materially reduces the \u201ccrash risk\u201d of Brexit negotiations as well as strengthening the Prime Minister\u2019s hand in pursuing an orderly (and very lengthy) withdrawal<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Source: Bloomberg<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One of the pound\u2019s biggest bears just threw in the towel. Deutsche Bank AG, who&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1398,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[373],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-news"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pound Bears Flee as Deutsche Bank Sees Election as Game-Changer - 18 April, 2017 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/arabicfxadvisors.com\/english\/pound-bears-flee-deutsche-bank-sees-election-game-changer-18-april-2017\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pound Bears Flee as Deutsche Bank Sees Election as Game-Changer - 18 April, 2017 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"One of the pound\u2019s biggest bears just threw in the towel. 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